October 2008

The amount of economic activity in the region remained virtually unchanged in October as the Index of Economic Activity in Tompkins County dipped 0.17 percent to a level of 152.46 from a revised mark of 152.72 in September. Retail sales were soft, but employment, home sales, and air traffic showed resilience. Compared to October 2007 economic activity was down 1.41 percent.

The number of jobs in Tompkins County held steady at 64,000 in October.  Health and educational services added 400 new jobs, while mining lost 200. The unemployment rate was 4.2 percent. That compares with 3.1 percent a year ago. The unemployment rate in New York State was 5.5 percent in October, compared to 6.1 percent nationally.

Retail sales volume continued to be sluggish in October when it fell 2.36 percent from September. Sales volume is down 6.94 percent from October 2007. Numbers like these are making retailers look forward with trepidation to the holiday shopping season. Nielsen forecasts a 4.7 percent improvement in holiday retail sales over last year. The National retail Federation is less optimistic, predicting an improvement of 2.2 percent. In Tompkins County, retail sales are running 3.2 percent ahead of last year through October. That means we can expect holiday sales to be up by about as much. This translates into a forecast of $284 million in retail sales in November and December compared to $276 last season. Unfortunately, prices are up 4.5 percent over last year, so all of this gain is wiped out by inflation.

The number of passengers arriving and departing from Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport lifted 1.91 percent to 16,735 from 16,422 in September. Compared to October 2007 air traffic was up 10.35 percent.

Residential building permits issued in Tompkins County slipped 4.24 percent in October. Building permits through the first ten months of 2008 are on a par with 2007.

Residential home sales in Tompkins County improved 4.06 percent in October when 69 homes were sold. In October 2007, 68 homes were sold. The average sale price was $212,800 compared with $176,300 a year ago. The median sale price was $174,000 compared to $159,000 a year ago. It looks like County realtors will sell100 or so homes less than last year and prices have stopped moving up. But the Tompkins County real estate market is fairing much better than many areas of the nation.

Help wanted advertising improved by 3.78 percent in October. An increase in advertising for workers can signal future gains in employment.

With only two months of numbers left to come in 2008, the Tompkins County economy is on track to grow by less than 0.5 percent in the year. The forecast, made in November of 2007 – well before the financial meltdown, was for 1 percent growth in 2008. We will be lucky if we can escape with such a small sacrifice.

Maintained by Elia Kacapyr (kacapyr@ithaca.edu)
Last updated 11/25/08