The Index of Economic Activity
in Tompkins County


  Department of Economics
  at Ithaca College



 

 

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Economic Activity is Brisk in October
A brisk level of economic activity in October raised the possibility of 2007 showing at least some gains over 2006. The Index of Economic Activity in Tompkins County improved to a reading of 152.80 from a revised mark of 149.94 in September. This amounts to a gain of 1.91 percent. Compared to October 2006, economic activity was up 1.84 percent.
 

 

The number of jobs in Tompkins County increased by 800 in October to 62,900. That is 300 more jobs than in October 2006. Job creation has not been robust in 2007.  In a good year, Tompkins County would create closer to 1,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate was 3.1 percent in October, compared to 3.3 percent last year. In New York State the unemployment rate was 4.4 percent and 4.4 percent nationally.

Retail sales inched backward 1.01 percent in October when County retailers rang up $122.8 million. However, that is 3.15 percent better than October 2006.  It is time to talk about holiday retail sales.  The National Retail Federation estimates that 147 million shoppers came out across the nation on Black Friday weekend.  That is up 4.8 percent over last year.  But those shoppers were not spending as freely and the total take of retailers was down 3.5 percent.  For November and December 2007, retail sales are expected to be 4.0 percent higher than last year.  Here in Tompkins County, holiday retail sales are expected to amount to $275.4 million, or 5 percent higher than last year.  This forecast is based on the fact that retail sales are running 5 percent ahead of last year’s pace through October.

The number of passengers arriving and departing from Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport descended 11.11 percent to 15,165. Compared to October 2006 air traffic is up 13.29 percent.

Residential building permits issued in the Ithaca metropolitan statistical area vaulted 53.22 percent in October. Permits have a tendency to swing widely from month to month and a change of this amount is significant but not unusual. Through October, building permits are running well behind last year’s pace.

Existing home sales rose 40.48 percent in October as Tompkins County bucked the national trend to lower sales.  However, compared to October 2006 homes sales are off 3.40 percent.

Help wanted advertising advanced 7.10 percent in October. Help wanted advertising is an idicator of employment conditions.

 

SECTOR

Change

(from SEP 2007)

Change

(from OCT 2006)

Employment

  *    1.28 %

  *    0.39 %

Retail Sales

  *    1.01 %

  *    3.15 %

Air Passengers

  *  11.11 %

  *  13.29 %

Building Permits

  *   53.22 %

  *  93.20 %

Home Sales

  *   40.48 %

  *    3.40 %

Help Wanted Advertising

  *     7.10 %

  *  13.16 %

Index of Economic Activity

  *     1.91 %

  *    1.84 %

 

October 2007 benefited from being compared with a sluggish September and a weak October 2006.  However, October was strong enough to lift the average level of economic activity in 2007 above that of 2006.  At this point in time, economic activity in Tompkins County is running 0.6 percent ahead of last year’s pace.  That may not seem like something to brag about, but it beats no growth at all.
  The Index of Economic Activity in Tompkins County is a public service of Ithaca College.

Maintained by Elia Kacapyr (kacapyr@ithaca.edu)
 Last updated 11/29/07