The Index of Economic Activity
in Tompkins County


  Department of Economics
  at Ithaca College



 

 

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County Economy Picks Up Steam in November
The local economy picked up steam in November by building on the gains made in the previous month. The Index of Economic Activity in Tompkins County improved to a reading of 153.59 from a revised mark of 151.59 in October. This amounts to a gain of 1.32 percent. Compared to November 2006, economic activity was up 1.82 percent.  Moderate increases in employment, retail sales, and home sales outpaced declines in air traffic, building permits, and help wanted advertising.
 

 

Tompkins County added 500 in November to bring total employment up to 63,400. That is 400 more jobs than in November 2006. If we end up adding 400 jobs to the local economy in 2007, then we will have had a typical year. In a good year, like 2003, we create about 1,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate was 3.2 percent in November, compared to 3.0 percent last year. In New York State the unemployment rate was 4.4 percent and 4.5 percent nationally.

County retailers had a decent month in November when sales increased 4.94 percent. Holiday sales are expected to be 5 percent higher in Tompkins County this year. With November sales amounting to $131.8 million we are right on track to make that forecast.

The number of passengers arriving and departing from Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport in November slipped 2.96 percent to 14,715. Compared to November 2006 air traffic was up 24.70 percent.

Residential building permits issued in the Ithaca metropolitan statistical area sagged 16.98 percent in November. Permits have a tendency to swing widely from month to month and a change of this amount is not unusual. Through November, building permits are running well behind last year’s pace.

Existing home sales rose 15.57 percent in November, but compared to November 2006 homes sales were off 18.25 percent. The average selling price was $157,000 compared to $183,000 in November 2006.

Help wanted advertising fell back 9.07 percent in November. Declines in help wanted advertising indicate softness in the labor market.

 

SECTOR

Change

(from OCT 2007)

Change

(from NOV 2006)

Employment

  *    0.81 %

  *    0.61 %

Retail Sales

  *    4.94 %

  *    3.92 %

Air Passengers

  *    2.96 %

  *  24.70 %

Building Permits

  *  16.98 %

  *158.12 %

Home Sales

  *  15.57 %

  *  18.25 %

Help Wanted Advertising

  *    9.07 %

  *  13.30 %

Index of Economic Activity

  *    1.32 %

  *    1.82 %

 

Very often, the best forecast of economic activity next year is exactly what happened this year. That certainly appears to be the case here in Tompkins County where economic growth in 2007 is around 0.7 percent, just a little bit higher than 2006.
  The Index of Economic Activity in Tompkins County is a public service of Ithaca College.

Maintained by Elia Kacapyr (kacapyr@ithaca.edu)
 Last updated 12/28/07