The Index of Economic Activity
in Tompkins County


  Department of Economics
  at Ithaca College



 

 

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County Economy Ends Year on a Soft Note
The local economy ran out of steam in the last month of 2007. The Index of Economic Activity in Tompkins County dipped to a reading of 152.07 from a revised mark of 153.45 in November. This amounts to a decline of 0.37 percent. Compared to December 2006, economic activity was up 0.37 percent. Modest gains in employment, home sales, and help wanted advertising were overtaken by losses in retail sales, air traffic, and building permits.
 

 

 

The number of jobs in Tompkins County held steady from November to December at 63,400. That is 400 more jobs than in December 2006. The County created 200 jobs in 2007. In a good year, like 2003, we create about 1,000 new jobs. The unemployment rate in December was 3.1 percent. In New York State the unemployment rate was 4.7 percent and 4.8 percent nationally.

County retailers had a better than expected holiday season. Retail sales for November and December 2007 totaled $282 million for a gain of 7.4 percent over last year. Holiday sales were expected to be 5 percent higher in Tompkins County this year. December itself was not a good month for retail sales suggesting that people did their holiday shopping early.

The number of passengers arriving and departing from Ithaca Tompkins Regional Airport in December descended 14.69 percent to 12,553. However, compared to December 2006 air traffic was up 8.50 percent.

Residential building permits issued in Tompkins County crumbled 36.80 percent in December. Permits have a tendency to swing widely from month to month and a change of this amount is not unusual. There were 16.2 percent fewer building permits issued in 2007 than 2006.

Existing home sales rose 3.62 percent in December, but for the year home sales were off 8.2 percent.

Help wanted advertising inched ahead 2.75 percent in December. This is a marginal increase for this indicator of labor market conditions.

 

SECTOR

Change

(from NOV 2007)

Change

(from DEC 2006)

Employment

  *    0.04 %

  *    0.61 %

Retail Sales

  *    2.67 %

  *    2.75 %

Air Passengers

  *  14.69 %

  *    8.50 %

Building Permits

  *  36.80 %

  *  24.90 %

Home Sales

  *    3.62 %

  *  21.86 %

Help Wanted Advertising

  *    2.75 %

  *    9.13 %

Index of Economic Activity

  *    0.90 %

  *    0.37 %

 

The figures for 2007 will be revised in the months ahead but the current numbers show that the Tompkins County economy grew by 0.1 percent last year. With the national economy struggling, 2008 could be an even tougher year. Our own forecast for 2008 is based on the County economy avoiding a recession and growing 1.0 percent.
  The Index of Economic Activity in Tompkins County is a public service of Ithaca College.

Maintained by Elia Kacapyr (kacapyr@ithaca.edu)
 Last updated 2/06/08