Economic
Activity
Economic
Activity
in
Tompkins County
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Description of the Index Historical Data Forecasts Links Archives Front Page |
The Cost of
Christmas in Tompkins County
Retail sales forecasters have one less tool to help them this holiday season. After 18 years, Peter Appert of Global Investment Research has discontinued his “Gift Wrap Index”. The index monitored shipments of gift wrap just prior to the holiday season. More gift wrap meant more retail sales. Appert noted that the relationship between holiday retail sales and gift wrap shipments had been breaking down in recent years.
Nevertheless, several quirky economic indicators for the holiday season still get churned out every year. For instance, PNC Bank has checked the prices of all twelve items mentioned in the age-old song "The Twelve Days of Christmas". For this year the cost of those twelve items rose 9.5 percent. The bank estimates that it would cost a person exactly $72,608.02 to purchase all twelve items in the amounts stipulated by the song. I’m not sure how they arrive at a figure of $329.60 for eight maids-a-milking.
Locally, we have the “Cost of Christmas in Tompkins County”. Every year since 1994, I've gone out and purchased twenty typical holiday items in Tompkins County. Every effort is made to purchase the exact same item in the same store each year. When this is not possible, a similar item or a different store is substituted. For Christmas 2005 the twenty items, ranging from quarter carat diamond earrings to postage stamps, cost $502.47. This compares with $499.37in 2004. This amounts to an increase of $3.10, or 0.6 percent.
The big spenders are in the clear. The quarter carat diamond earrings are priced at $250.00, the same as last year. Chanel #5 held steady as well at $55.00 for the 50 ML bottle. Other items that did not change in price include replacement light bulbs, the Douglas fir tree, ice cream, Champagne, white wine, postage stamps, and batteries.
The largest price jump occurred for garland. Sixty feet of the stuff will now cost you $8.97 compared to $3.99 last year. Ham, flour, red wine, and Grande Marnier increased in cost as well. But don’t worry, the Christmas balls dropped to $2.39 from $7.49. The price of gift wrap fell, as did the cost of electricity to run those lights. But most crucially, the price of that all-important holiday staple – aspirin – fell by 13 percent.
Although the cost of Christmas in Tompkins County hardly changed this year, retail sales are expected to take off like Santa’s sleigh on Christmas Eve. I’m expecting a 10 percent increase over last year’s holiday sales. Unfortunately, we don’t have the Gift Wrap Index to rely on anymore. Our forecast is based on the fact that retail sales in Tompkins County are up 17 percent through the first 10 months of 2005. Ho-ho-ho!
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THE
COST OF CHRISTMAS IN TOMPKINS COUNTY |
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ITEM |
1994 |
1995 |
1996 |
1997 |
1998 |
1999 |
2000 |
2001 |
2002 |
2003 |
2004 |
2005 |
change |
% |
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8
REPLACE BULBS |
1.88 |
1.98 |
1.98 |
1.98 |
1.98 |
2.49 |
2.49 |
2.49 |
1.79 |
1.98 |
1.98 |
1.98 |
0.00 |
0.0% |
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150'
GIFT WRAP |
3.97 |
4.77 |
4.87 |
4.87 |
5.53 |
7.49 |
6.94 |
7.98 |
4.99 |
4.99 |
5.76 |
4.49 |
-1.27 |
-22.0% |
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60'
GARLAND |
4.97 |
5.99 |
5.99 |
5.99 |
19.96 |
5.99 |
5.99 |
5.99 |
7.19 |
8.97 |
3.99 |
8.97 |
4.98 |
124.8% |
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18
MED XMAS BALLS |
3.97 |
3.99 |
4.99 |
4.99 |
4.99 |
4.79 |
4.79 |
4.79 |
1.99 |
4.48 |
7.49 |
2.39 |
-5.10 |
-68.1% |
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7.5'
DOUGLAS FIR |
35.00 |
30.00 |
35.00 |
35.00 |
35.00 |
27.00 |
35.00 |
35.00 |
35.00 |
28.00 |
35.00 |
35.00 |
0.00 |
0.0% |
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2
QTS EGG NOG |
2.58 |
2.78 |
2.78 |
2.78 |
3.38 |
3.38 |
3.38 |
5.38 |
3.98 |
4.32 |
4.78 |
4.84 |
0.06 |
1.3% |
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3LB
HAM |
7.99 |
8.99 |
8.99 |
8.99 |
8.99 |
11.99 |
6.29 |
6.29 |
6.99 |
6.99 |
6.99 |
8.99 |
2.00 |
28.6% |
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5LB
BAG FLOUR |
1.19 |
1.39 |
1.69 |
1.59 |
1.69 |
1.79 |
1.79 |
1.79 |
1.09 |
1.69 |
1.49 |
1.89 |
0.40 |
26.8% |
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.5
GAL ICE CREAM |
3.69 |
3.68 |
3.69 |
3.88 |
4.49 |
4.49 |
4.69 |
4.99 |
4.99 |
4.99 |
5.19 |
5.19 |
0.00 |
0.0% |
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750
ML CHAMPAGN |
6.99 |
6.99 |
6.99 |
7.49 |
7.49 |
8.99 |
8.99 |
9.49 |
8.99 |
8.99 |
9.99 |
9.99 |
0.00 |
0.0% |
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750
ML WHITE WINE |
4.49 |
4.49 |
4.49 |
4.99 |
4.99 |
4.99 |
4.99 |
3.99 |
3.99 |
3.99 |
4.99 |
4.99 |
0.00 |
0.0% |
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750
ML RED WINE |
6.49 |
6.49 |
5.99 |
6.49 |
8.49 |
8.49 |
8.49 |
6.99 |
8.99 |
8.99 |
9.49 |
11.99 |
2.50 |
26.3% |
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750
ML GRANDE M |
31.99 |
31.99 |
32.59 |
31.99 |
28.99 |
28.99 |
29.99 |
29.99 |
29.99 |
31.29 |
31.69 |
34.29 |
2.60 |
8.2% |
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60
TYLENOL |
4.88 |
4.88 |
4.88 |
4.88 |
4.88 |
4.88 |
6.11 |
6.23 |
6.59 |
6.59 |
6.59 |
5.75 |
-0.84 |
-12.7% |
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50
ML CHANEL #5 |
33.50 |
45.00 |
44.00 |
46.00 |
67.00 |
67.00 |
67.00 |
70.00 |
75.00 |
52.50 |
55.00 |
55.00 |
0.00 |
0.0% |
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.25
CT DIA. EARRINGS |
150.00 |
185.00 |
199.00 |
199.00 |
199.00 |
275.00 |
199.00 |
199.00 |
249.00 |
225.00 |
250.00 |
250.00 |
0.00 |
0.0% |
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20
POSTAGE STAMP |
5.80 |
6.40 |
6.40 |
6.40 |
6.40 |
6.60 |
6.60 |
6.80 |
7.40 |
7.40 |
7.40 |
7.40 |
0.00 |
0.0% |
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100KWH
ELEC |
13.49 |
14.78 |
14.98 |
14.96 |
14.92 |
14.92 |
14.81 |
14.99 |
16.60 |
12.66 |
12.18 |
9.64 |
-2.54 |
-20.9% |
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2
9V BATTERIES |
4.58 |
4.78 |
4.47 |
4.57 |
4.97 |
6.49 |
4.99 |
4.99 |
4.89 |
4.89 |
4.89 |
4.89 |
0.00 |
0.0% |
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2
D BATTERIES |
2.34 |
2.48 |
2.57 |
2.57 |
2.57 |
3.69 |
4.79 |
4.79 |
3.49 |
3.69 |
2.49 |
2.49 |
0.00 |
0.0% |
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SALES
TAX |
20.41 |
24.32 |
25.43 |
25.67 |
28.48 |
33.95 |
27.88 |
28.04 |
32.02 |
28.78 |
31.99 |
32.30 |
0.31 |
1.0% |
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TOTAL |
350.20 |
401.17 |
421.77 |
425.08 |
464.19 |
533.40 |
455.00 |
460.00 |
514.96 |
461.18 |
499.37 |
502.47 |
3.10 |
0.6% |
