|
The Index of
Economic Activity
in Tompkins County
Department of Economics |
|
| Front Page | Historical Data | Outlook | Archives | Methodology |
| Outlook for 2008 It is a difficult
time to be an economic forecaster. The profession is split fifty-fifty
over whether there will be a recession in 2008. Those calling for a
downturn point to the sub prime mortgage crisis. Foreclosures and
declining home prices cause consumers to become wary. Consumer
wariness translates into fewer retail sales which in turn causes job
losses. Eventually business spending for new plant and equipment falls
off the table as well. The other half of the
forecasting profession sees the sub prime crisis taking its toll, but
on a resilient United States economy. Consumers may become cautious,
but they will continue to spend. In addition, a weakened dollar will
encourage consumers to buy American and bolster our exports. Net
exports have already begun to show signs of increasing strength even
in the face of sky high oil prices. And after all, the Fed will help
by lowering interest rates. The Congressional
Budget Office houses a team of economic forecasters with a respectable
record. They are taking the no-recession view. Indeed, their forecast
calls for economic growth to pick up very slightly in 2008 to 2.9
percent from 2.6 percent in 2007. In a typical year the U.S. economy
grows by 3.2 percent. The Congressional Budget Office sees the
unemployment rate increasing to 4.7 percent from 4.5 percent in 2007.
They have interesting rates and inflation falling slightly throughout
2008. New York State has
been growing faster than the nation for the past few years. However,
most of that growth is attributable to the downstate economy.
Simple projections have the New York State economy expanding by
4.0 percent in 2008. The State economy should add 100,000 new jobs, a
gain of only 1.10 percent. Retail sales have been growing at 5.0
percent a year and that would make for $274 billion in sales in 2008.
The population of the State is expected to increase by about a million
new residents and per capita income should approach $50,000 in 2008. Here in Tompkins
County, the population is projected to increase by 500 persons to
101,300. The overall economy is expected to grow 1.0 percent, with per
capita income closing in on $33,000. The unemployment rate should hold
steady at 3.4 percent. That depends on the regional economy adding 300
new jobs in 2008. That is how many jobs were created in 2007. Retail
sales increased almost 5.5 percent in 2007. If that pace continues
into 2008, then regional retail market will top $1.6 billion. About
1,000 homes were sold in Tompkins County in 2007 and that number is
the forecast for 2008 as well. The price of the median home should
hold steady at around $170,000. |
|
Current
Forecasts and Forecasting Record
Economic
Activity in Tompkins County (annual
growth rate)
Forecast Actual
1994
>
4.0%
2.4%
1995
>
1.5%
0.9%
1996
>
0.0%
1.3%
1997
>
2.0%
1.0%
1998
>
1.5%
2.5%
1999
>
3.0%
6.0%
2000
>
3.0%
1.9%
2001
>
2.0%
1.3%
2002
>
1.0% 2003 > 1.0% 0.8% 2004 > 2.5% 2.4% 2005 > 2.0% 1.4% 2006 > 2.0% 0.5% 2008 > 1.0% Holiday
Retail Sales in Tompkins County (in millions of $)
Forecast Actual
1994
>
$155
$156
1995
>
$160
$159
1996
>
$164
$159 1997 > $155 $165 1998 > $178 $168 1999 > $185 $186 2000 > $189 $186 2001 > $202 $195
2002
>
$220 2003 > $225 $216 2004 > $250 $242 2005 > $273 $256 2006 > $279 $262 2007 > $275 $282 Home
Sales in Tompkins County (number
of units)
Forecast Actual
1994
>
670
610
1995
>
670
658
1996
>
620
741
1997
>
690
785
1998
>
750
884
1999 > 850 967
2000
>
980
936 2001 > 900 1,019 2002 > 960 948 2003 > 925 939 2004 > 930 997 2005 > 1,000 1,040 2006 > 1,000 1,041 2007 > 1,000 1,012 2008 > 1,000  The Index of Economic Activity in Tompkins County is a public service of Ithaca College.
Maintained by Elia Kacapyr (kacapyr@ithaca.edu) |
