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The Index of
Economic Activity
in Tompkins County
Department of Economics |
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| Front Page | Historical Data | Outlook | Archives | Methodology |
| Outlook for 2012 There are some dark clouds on the economic horizon as 2012 opens and it is difficult to tell if these clouds will dissipate or roll in with heavy rain. The financial crisis in Europe is one such cloud. Monetary policy coordination between our Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, along with loan guarantees from all the major players could very well dissipate this cloud. Harsh austerity measures and a collapse of the Euro would bring heavy rain to our economy. Other economic concerns include the housing market and household debt levels; the unwillingness of firms to hire in the face of soft consumer spending; and reductions in government spending and hiring. These national and international concerns will impact us here in Tompkins County since we are an integral part of the global economy. We have some unique characteristics, but we are not isolated from the global economy. We weathered the Great Recession much better than most of the nation. In 2009, employment fell from 64,300 to 64,100, or 0.3 percent. In the national economy, employment fell 4.4 percent. Employment in the education and health services held up very well during this episode and that happens to be our strong suit. But job growth has been sluggish here at home and nationally since the recession officially ended. Tompkins County put on 1,100 jobs in 2010, but lost 800 jobs in 2011. I expect we will add 400 jobs in 2012. Hopefully areas like manufacturing and retail sales will not lose jobs because it is likely that some federal, state and local government jobs will disappear in Tompkins County in 2012. The new jobs are expected to be in education and health services. Retail sales, after adding in mild inflation, are expected to increase 5 percent in 2012 after improving 4.6 percent in 2011 and 7.3 percent in 2010. Home sales are expected to remain stagnant at 875 sales. Home sales have shown no trend upward or downward since falling to 884 from 1,012 in 2008. The price of the median home in Tompkins County is expected to be $180,000 after coming in at $175,000 in 2011. Employment, retail sales, and home sales are the big three. To these add modest improvements in air traffic, building permits, and help wanted advertising and the result is a 1.0 percent increase in economic activity in Tompkins County in 2012. |
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Current
Forecasts and Forecasting Record
Economic
Activity in Tompkins County (annual
growth rate)
Forecast Actual
1994
>
4.0%
2.4%
1995
>
1.5%
0.9%
1996
>
0.0%
1.3%
1997
>
2.0%
1.0%
1998
>
1.5%
2.5%
1999
>
3.0%
6.0%
2000
>
3.0%
1.9%
2001
>
2.0%
1.3%
2002
>
1.0% 2003 > 1.0% 0.8% 2004 > 2.5% 2.4% 2005 > 2.0% 1.3% 2006 > 2.0% 0.7% 2008 > 1.0% 2009 > -1.0% -0.7% 2010 > 2.0% 3.0% 2011 > 2.0% 0.2% 2012 > 1.0% Holiday
Retail Sales in Tompkins County (in millions of $)
Forecast Actual
1994
>
$155
$156
1995
>
$160
$159
1996
>
$164
$159 1997 > $155 $165 1998 > $178 $168 1999 > $185 $186 2000 > $189 $186 2001 > $202 $195
2002
>
$220 2003 > $225 $216 2004 > $250 $242 2005 > $273 $256 2006 > $279 $259 2007 > $275 $268 2008 2009 > $237 $257 2010 > $269 $279 2011 > $294 $303 2012 > Home
Sales in Tompkins County (number
of units)
Forecast Actual
1994
>
670
610
1995
>
670
658
1996
>
620
741
1997
>
690
785
1998
>
750
884
1999 > 850 967
2000
>
980
936 2001 > 900 1,019 2002 > 960 948 2003 > 925 939 2004 > 930 997 2005 > 1,000 1,040 2006 > 1,000 1,041 2007 > 1,000 1,007 2008 > 1,000 877 2009 > 1,000 798 2010 > 900 855 2011 > 890 858 2012 > 875  The Index of Economic Activity in Tompkins County is a public service of Ithaca College.
Maintained by Elia Kacapyr (kacapyr@ithaca.edu) |
