"Historical Roots of the Yugoslav Conflict"

V.P. Gagnon, Jr.

Research for this paper was funded by the Social Science Research Council-MacArthur Foundation Fellowship on Peace and Security in a Changing World.

Part 1

Because protagonists in Yugoslavia themselves refer to ethnic differences to justify their resort to warfare, it is perhaps understandable that at first glance the conflict would seem to be the result of such differences, especially inasmuch as outside observers, and IOs in particular, did not turn their attention to Yugoslavia until fighting had already broken out along ethnic lines. But the Yugoslav conflict, far from being an outburst of "ancient ethnic hatreds," was the purposeful creation of specific sectors of the country's political elite, which provoked conflict along ethnic lines [Cerovic 1993; Banac 1992a; Gagnon 1994].

This strategy was employed by those parts of the elite most threatened by social, political, and economic trends within Yugoslavia which were militating toward radical restructuring of the political and economic system. By diverting political discourse away from the issue of reform toward alleged threats posed to the "nation" (in an ethnic sense), and by provoking violent conflict along ethnic lines, these conservative forces managed to overcome the opposition of liberals within the communist party and then opposition forces outside of it [Gagnon 1994].

Of course, the nature of the party-state system, the depth of the social and economic crisis, and the alternatives being proposed by reformers all ensured that any radical change would be fiercely contested. Moreover, several characteristics of the Yugoslav system made compromise very difficult, exacerbating the contest and allowing conservative forces to push the country toward violence along ethnic and national lines.

First, the concentration of power in and the relative autonomy of the local (commune)-level apparatus gave elites there great influence in the republics. At the same time, the structure of economic and political power at the local level and the nature of that power (bureaucratic position rather than "ownership" of property) meant that radical economic and political reform was most threatening to those local elites.

Second, the confederal structure of the country, virtually without an autonomous center, meant that conflict resolution depended on the willingness of republic-level elites to reach consensus and to abide by joint decisions.

Third, the "national" character of the federal units meant that conflicts among and between republic-level elites could be portrayed in "ethnic" or "national" terms.

Fourth, the special role of the JNA, the Yugoslav People's Army (Jugoslovenksa Narodna Armija) in the Yugoslav system, in particular its privileged position, its active participation in political issues, and its stated role as defender of the internal "socialist order" put it on the side of those most opposed to change.

These characteristics, taken together, created a dynamic that enabled conservatives to respond to the threat of radical change with a strategy of ethnically based violent conflict.

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