By Jan Consalvi Lemieux '60 and Jim Lemieux '60
Hong Kongers in general, and Hong Kong business people in particular, seem to be indifferent to politics and government. It is common to hear comments like "We’d rather be governed by Chinese than foreigners" or "The Brits only recently became interested in Hong Kong’s democracy." However, most of our more vocal friends were holding an alternative passport.
I think the best years for living and conducting business in Hong Kong are over. During the first five years after the takeover, life will be much more controlled. Education, law, religion, press, and travel will suffer. Business will be more arbitrarily taxed and manipulated. Corruption and corrupt relationships will be much more prevalent.
It is important to remember that today’s Hong Kong has an incredibly free, capitalistic system. The only government involvement is in the area of safe/fair labor conditions and in corrupt practices investigations. With minimal exception, it is a free port. It has a very simple flat tax system. It is a trading paradise. Business in China (and in Hong Kong after 1997) is different, but it can be very worthwhile.
After the shocks and adjustments required during the first five years, a civil pattern will be established, and a different Hong Kong will prevail. She will have tough competition for commercial dominance from Shanghai, but that condition will be healthy. Doing business and living in Hong Kong in 2002 will be similar to doing those things in Beijing or Shanghai.
We lived in Taiwan for five years in the early 1970s. Our Hong Kong scenario will suffer a major setback if the political differences between China, the U.S., and Taiwan become more than bluster. Hong Kongers are characteristically nonpolitical, but they could become passionate if China were to bully Taiwan too quickly. Hong Kongers exhibited rare anger and outrage immediately after Tiananmen Square. Hundreds of thousands publicly protested. These emotions could be triggered again over Taiwan. Although China would have little difficulty controlling any Hong Kong protest or action, the control could cause a protest wave in Hong Kong that would have long-lasting effects.
Editor’s note: Jan and Jim Lemieux recently returned to the U.S. after working in Hong Kong for several years.
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