Examine this sentence:

"Halfway through President Clinton's tenure in office in 1996, the poverty rate was 13.7 percent. Halfway through President Bush's tenure, the rate is 12.7 percent, a full point lower."

It seems pretty clear from these statistics that President Bush has done a better job in fighting poverty than President Clinton did.

But now consider this sentence:

"During the Clinton presidency, 1993 to 2000, the poverty rate fell every year, but it has risen every year that Bush has been in office.

Maybe George W. Bush hasn't done such a good job after all.

When thinking about these facts and statistics, what more do you need to consider? Here's some questions I might suggest:

Are both sets of statistics accurate?
Yes, according to a poverty table compiled by the Census Bureau, which may be the most authoritative source regarding poverty in the United States, at least as far as poverty is defined by the United States government.
What are the sources for the two statements?
The first statement has been attributed to Fox News pundit, Bill O'Reilly?
His statement was "fact-checked" by a group called Media Matters for America.
What are the politcal agendas behind those sources?
The sites themselves will provide a lot of information. Media Matters reveals much about itself on a page that explains why was this group formed. In addition, a quick google search or query in one of several periodical databases will help you see what other people have had to say about the political outlook of both.
Were either of the statements taken out of context?
You would need to do a little more digging to answer this.
Are statistics on poverty rates a meaningful measure of "presidential efforts to fight poverty"?
That is a different kind of question that might require a different kind of thought.

As you consider both the accuracy and power of statistics, what additional questions do you think need to be asked before accepting the numbers?

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Last modified: June 27, 2007