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2010 Census and Reapportionment2010 Census and Reapportionment

One expert on electoral politics is throwing a little cold water on pundit predictions that Republicans are the big winners from the 2010 census, which will see “red” states picking up House seats and “blue” states losing representation as a result of the once-a-decade reapportionment.

Donald Beachler, an associate professor of politics at Ithaca College and the coauthor of “Winning the White House, 2008,” says that Republican success in the 2010 midterm elections may actually blunt GOP prospects for further Congressional pickups in 2012.

“Because of Republican gains last November, they now hold so many districts in Pennsylvania and Ohio — which stand to lose three seats between them — that there is little room to expand without endangering those newly elected Republicans.”

On the flip side, says Beachler, some of the states that will gain seats are doing so because of their increasing Latino population, which is good news for Democrats. “In states like Texas and Arizona, the Voting Rights Act will require the creation of some Latino majority seats as part of redistricting. These districts will likely elect Democrats.”

Beachler has written extensively on Congress, elections and voter turnout. “Winning the White House, 2008” looked at the historical and emerging voting patterns that shaped that presidential election, exploring the electoral map to analyze how control of the White House and Congress hinged on the developing trends across the nation’s four main regions.